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Water Science & Technology Vol 52 No 6 pp 133–144 © IWA Publishing 2005
Experiences with the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment
J.van der Sluijs*, M. Craye**, S. Funtowicz***, P. Kloprogge****, J. Ravetz***** and J. Risbey******
*Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands, (E-mail: ; p.kloprogge@chem.uu.nl)
**Knowledge Assessment Methodologies (KAM), Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission – Joint Research Centre (EC–JRC), TP 361, 21020, Ispra, (VA), Italy, (E-mail: matthieu.craye@jrc.it; silvio.funtowicz@jrc.it)
***Knowledge Assessment Methodologies (KAM), Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission – Joint Research Centre (EC–JRC), TP 361, 21020, Ispra, (VA), Italy, (E-mail: matthieu.craye@jrc.it; silvio.funtowicz@jrc.it)
****Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands, (E-mail: ; p.kloprogge@chem.uu.nl)
*****Research Method Consultancy (RMC), 106 Defoe House, Barbican, London, EC2Y 8ND, UK, (E-mail: jerry_ravetz@lineone.net)
******School of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 28M, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia, (E-mail: james.risbey@sci.monash.edu.au)
ABSTRACT
This paper discusses recent experiences with the NUSAP system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method, and especially the pedigree analysis part of it, is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also to systematically reflect upon (model) assumptions and problem frames. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative and qualitative analysis. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We further show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems. Keywords Controversy; NUSAP; pedigree; problem frames; uncertainty; value-laden assumptions
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