Water Supply Vol 5 No 2 pp 1–8 © IWA Publishing 2005
Integrated failure forecasting model for the strategic rehabilitation planning process
I. Kropp* and R. Baur**
*TU Dresden, Chair of Urban Engineering, D-01062 Dresden, Germany, (E-mail: ingo.kropp@mailbox.tu-dresden.de); INFRA-REHAB Ingenieur Consult, Hohe Str. 46B, D-01187 Dresden, (E-mail: info@infra-rehab.net)
**TU Dresden, Chair of Urban Engineering, D-01062 Dresden, Germany, (E-mail: ingo.kropp@mailbox.tu-dresden.de); INFRA-REHAB Ingenieur Consult, Hohe Str. 46B, D-01187 Dresden, (E-mail: info@infra-rehab.net)
ABSTRACT
The occurrence of pipe failures in water networks cause major technical, economic and socio-economic impacts. Thus, comprehensible and reliable failure prediction models are required for operational and strategic planning purposes in order to guarantee a sustainable water network development. A lot of research work has been done in this field and the developed failure prediction models can be applied under various circumstances. However, most of the existing models have two major limitations: they consider a static state of the network without taking future developments into account, and they can hardly be applied to networks where only limited data on single pipe level is available. This paper describes a failure prediction model on the network and pipe type level, which is integrated in the KANEW framework for strategic rehabilitation planning. First testing results with this approach are promising. Keywords Failure prediction; rehabilitation; strategic planning; water networks
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