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Water Supply Vol 2 No 4 pp 29–35 © IWA Publishing 2002

A probability model for burst risk studies of water mains

C.T. Ta

Thames Water, Research and Development, Kempton AWTW, Feltham Hill Road, Hanworth, Middlesex TW13 6XH, UK (E-mail: tuan.ta@thameswater.co.uk)


ABSTRACT
A logistic model was used for burst risk studies. The model is applied to study burst risk of large (300 mm and greater) water mains in the London supply area. Many contributing factors were included and represented as geographical information system (GIS) layers. Detailed sampling techniques were discussed. Using the available data, the burst probability function was found to correlate with pipe number density, pipe diameter, soil corrosivity and number of buses.

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