Journal of Hydroinformatics 7 (2005) 267-282

Using Bayesian networks to model watershed management decisions: an East Canyon Creek case study

Daniel P. Ames, Bethany T. Neilson, David K. Stevens and Upmanu Lall

Department of Geosciences, Idaho State University, Pocatello, Idaho, 83209-8150, USA, Tel: +1 208 282 7851, ; amesdani@isu.edu

Department of Geosciences, Idaho State University, Pocatello, Idaho, 83209-8150, USA, Tel: +1 208 282 7851, ; amesdani@isu.edu

Department of Geosciences, Idaho State University, Pocatello, Idaho, 83209-8150, USA, Tel: +1 208 282 7851, ; amesdani@isu.edu

Utah Water Research Laboratory, Utah State University, Logan, UT,84322-8200, USA

An approach to developing and using Bayesian networks to model watershed management decisions is presented with a case study application to phosphorus management in the East Canyon watershed in Northern Utah, USA. The Bayesian network analysis includes a graphical model of the key variables in the system and conditional and marginal probability distributions derived from a variety of data and information sources. The resulting model is used to 1) estimate the probability of meeting legal water quality requirements for phosphorus in East Canyon Creek under several management scenarios and 2) estimate the probability of increased recreational use of East Canyon Reservoir and subsequent revenue under these scenarios.

Full article (PDF Format)